Our friends at Public Policy Polling have a pair of new Texas polls out this week. Let’s have a look.
First, the presumably open seat Senate race (2/18-20, registered voters):
John Sharp (D): 36
David Dewhurst (R): 42
Undecided: 22John Sharp (D): 36
Greg Abbott (R): 44
Undecided: 19John Sharp (D): 37
Florence Shapiro (R): 36
Undecided: 29Bill White (D): 37
David Dewhurst (R): 42
Undecided: 21Bill White (D): 36
Greg Abbott (R): 42
Undecided: 22Bill White (D): 36
Florence Shapiro (R): 37
Undecided: 27
(MoE: ±2.6%)
Need a scorecard? Here you go:
Former state Comptroller John Sharp
Houston Mayor Bill WhiteLt. Governor David Dewhurst
Attorney General Greg Abbott
State Senator Florence Shapiro (Dallas/Fort Worth area)
Lots of numbers here, but unfortunately, all of this information may not be of much use to us at this point for a number of reasons: 1) Neither Abbott nor Dewhurst have announced their intentions to run, but also; 2) Assuming Hutchison resigns and a special election occurs, we’ll be first have to deal with a massive jungle-type primary with potentially dozens of candidates (Democrat, Republican, and freakazoid alike) throwing their ten-gallon hats into the pen. The top two will then advance to a run-off, so the events that lead us there could easily throw us all for a loop.
However, the immediate takeaway is that White and Sharp start off on nearly equal footing — their favorability ratings are a rough match (33-25 for Sharp and 31-26 for White), but both also have the most room to grow in this field in terms of name recognition — a little over 40% of voters don’t know diddly about either man, while Abbott and Dewhurst are known to 68% and 73% of respondents, respectively. (Unsurprisingly, though, Shapiro leads on this score with a 48% “not sure” rating.)
Oh, and speaking of that brewing gubernatorial primary battle… Hutchison is creaming Perry (2/18-20, likely GOP primary voters):
Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 56
Rick Perry (R-inc): 31
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±3.5%)
Things are looking pretty grim for Perr-Perr, though who knows how nasty this primary could get. Discussion already well underway in DTM,B!’s diary.
is a good sign. there’s the partisan lean of the state in their favor, but i think there’s potential here. also, we need a B grade dem in the gov race just in case perry pulls off a squeeker, or the primary loser runs as an ind. considering 06, it’s not out of the question
Especially considering most of the named republicans hold statewide office and the democrats polled don’t.
Could an open Texas senate race become more competitive than open Florida senate race? Those numbers aren’t bad at all. I just hope we don’t screwed by this free-for-all primary nonsense.
Any opinions on Sharp and White?
to mean anything. The big Republican party ID advantage tells you what you need to know.
Texas is a long term project.
1) The kids are alright. in the 18-29 age demographic White and Sharp are winning by 10+ in most matchups.
2) The argument for Sharp was we that he held statewide office before. His name ID is equal to White’s.
3) White’s favorability is 47%-12%-41% among democrats. 41% of the Democratic base does not know who the mayor of Houston is or that he has been our top candidate in our farm team for a few years. This speaks more about the state of our grassroots and neighbor to neighbor organization than anything else. I bet that 41% doesn’t know that Harris, Bexar and Dallas counties went for Obama (and Dallas has mostly Democratic officeholders)
4) About 30% of the state does not know who the AG or Lt. Gov are. This is lower than I expected. I suspect some folks in the question on favorability only responded as a knee-jerk based on partisan affiliation. I suspect it’s probably closer to 40% unknown.
5) Democratic lowbar is around 36%, Republican lowbar is around 42% (Those Shapiro numbers will come around)
Conclusion: Massive amounts of money will be needed to even make a race (White seems to be doing this). Additionally, the Democratic candidate will need to make one heck of an argument that they are critically needed for the future of the country and Texas (something I am not seeing).
Bill White needs to be the horse that we back here. My impression is that he shocked many Texans by picking this race over a the Governor’s race. Obviously it is an uphill battle, but I would argue that even if we lose this race that White would still have a statewide political future unless he loses big. John Sharp…not so much of a future.
we certainly have to compete everywhere, but frankly, I just don’t see Texas as a viable pick-up opportunity in 2010. That doesn’t mean I wouldn’t be thrilled if it happened, but I suspect Texas for us is a lot like New Jersey is for Republicans – some promising early polls, then a thumping in the end.
U. S. Senator – Barbara Ann Radnofsky – 36.04%
Governor – Chris Bell – 29.78%
Lieutenant Governor – Maria Luisa Alvarado – 37.44%
Attorney General – David Van Os – 37.23%
Comptroller of Public Accounts – Fred Head – 37.01%
Commissioner of the General Land Office – VaLinda Hathcox – 40.96%
Commissioner of Agriculture – Hank Gilbert – 41.78%
Railroad Commissioner – Dale Henry – 41.73%
Justice, Supreme Court, Place 2 – William E. “Bill” Moody – 44.88%
Four candidates got about 36-37% of the vote, and another three got 41-42%. 37% is not a bad place to start, but it will be extremely hard to make it to 50.1%.